Fitch Ratings affirmed the UAE's long-term rating at AA- — one of the highest investment ratings globally.

According to the agency:

• oil revenues remain strong
• high oil prices offset some of the negative impact of the conflict
• exports via the Fujairah pipeline help reduce dependence on the Strait of Hormuz

The average oil price in 2026 is currently holding at around $86 per barrel.

The UAE's main financial buffer is Abu Dhabi

Fitch specifically highlights Abu Dhabi's substantial external assets.

The emirate's sovereign foreign assets are estimated at approximately:

• 164% of UAE GDP in 2025

This is one of the highest figures among all Fitch-rated countries.

These reserves enable the country to maintain:

• financial system stability
• access to global capital markets
• a high level of investor confidence

The UAE economy may slow down in 2026

However, Fitch anticipates short-term pressure on the economy:

Forecasts for 2026:

• UAE GDP: −4.8%
• non-oil GDP: −3.2%
• Dubai's economy: approximately -7%

The decline is due to:

• regional instability
• trade restrictions
• pressure on logistics and aviation
• consequences for tourism and business

However, a strong recovery is expected as early as 2027.

Following the UAE's withdrawal from OPEC and OPEC+, Fitch forecasts a sharp increase in oil production in 2027.

This could become one of the key drivers of economic recovery.